Goalies are paid to do one thing. Stop the puck from going in the net. To evaluate goalies, it should be easy. To what degree do they stop the puck from going in the net (save %). This post looks to evaluate both save %, shot count and pay. The save % of a goalie may seem a little difficult for a casual fan to care about. What's the difference in a single game between goalies with a 92% save rate versus one with 91%? Well seemingly nothing in just one game. But that single % difference could mean a swing of 25 goals over the course of a season. That's big and can easily mean the difference between making and missing the playoffs.
The table below breaks down the teams that by shots and save %. This table simply looks at the player performance and salary. The Florida Panthers goalies look like good value here while the GM in Detroit and Dallas better give his scouts something to work on for next year.
Save % | |||
Shot Count | Under 90% | 90-91% | Over 90% |
Significantly more shots than average | Sives getting shelled -Atlanta Thrashers ($6.3m) -NY Islanders ($1.3m) | Sweating -Tampa Bay Lightning ($1.3m) -Anaheim Ducks ($6.3) -Phoenix Coyotes ($1.3) | Overworked and playing great -Florida Panthers ($2.2m) |
About average amount of shots | Team Killers -Colorado Avalanche ($6.1) -St Louis Blues ($1.3) -Toronto Maple Leafs ($1.3) | Mr. Average -Pittsburgh Penguins ($1.3) -Edmonton Oilers ($4.7m) -Philadelphia Flyers ($1.3m) -New York Rangers ($1.3m) -Carolina Hurricanes ($6.1m) -Montreal Canadiens ($2.2m) -Washington Capitals ($1.3m) -Calgary Flames ($6.1m) -Vancouver Canucks ($1.3m) -New Jersey Devils ($1.3m) -Columbus Blue Jackets ($6.1m)
| Over-achievers -Buffalo Sabres ($6.1m) -Boston Bruins ($6.1m) -Minnesota Wild ($2.2m) -Nashville Predators ($1.7m) -Chicago Blackhawks ($6.1m) |
Significantly less shots than average | Hiding their incompetence -Detroit Red Wings ($6.1m) -Dallas Stars ($6.1m)
| Hiding behind their stats -Ottawa Senators ($1.3m) -Los Angeles Kings ($2.2m) | Awesome and bored -San Jose Sharks ($1.3m) |
If you buy that a team's +/- is the best indicator of team performance, then we can quickly see how a goalie individually contributes to his team's success. The average save % for NHL goalies in 2008-09 is 90.5%. If we replace all the team's current save % with the average, we can quickly get a view for how the records would be different. Watch the team with around an even +/- as they are the ones most on the bubble for the playoffs. To read it, the goal adjustment column is the amount of goals the team us up/down by based on their goalies play compared to the average goalie.
Team | Current +/- | Goal adjustment |
Boston Bruins | 68 | +41 |
San Jose Sharks | 52 | +10 |
Chicago Blackhawks | 42 | +16 |
Detroit Red Wings | 40 | -14 |
Nashville Predators | 29 | +13 |
Washington Capitals | 23 | -3 |
Philadelphia Flyers | 15 | +7 |
Minnesota Wild | 13 | +32 |
Buffalo Sabres | 10 | +13 |
Vancouver Canucks | 7 | 0 |
Calgary Flames | 6 | -6 |
Montreal Canadiens | 6 | +1 |
Florida Panthers | 4 | +26 |
Pittsburgh Penguins | -1 | -5 |
Anaheim Ducks | -1 | +9 |
Los Angeles Kings | -5 | -5 |
Dallas Stars | -5 | -26 |
Columbus Blue Jackets | -9 | -8 |
St Louis Blues | -12 | -12 |
Carolina Hurricanes | -13 | -2 |
New York Rangers | -16 | +8 |
New Jersey Devils | -16 | +1 |
Edmonton Oilers | -20 | -5 |
Colorado Avalanche | -23 | -16 |
Ottawa Senators | -24 | -5 |
Tampa Bay Lightning | -25 | +6 |
Phoenix Coyotes | -27 | +0 |
Toronto Maple Leafs | -33 | -46 |
Atlanta Thrashers | -39 | -23 |
New York Islanders | -46 | -10 |
The Boston Bruins enjoy incredible success due to good goaltending. That said, they would still be a good team with an average goaltending as well. The team most affected by poor goaltending is the Toronto Maple Leafs who appears to be putting AHL players in nets. And judging by the salaries they pay their goalies, it seems as though that is indeed the strategy. If the Leafs had even an average save %, they would be a better than average team. This could be good news for Leafs fans as there is an easy answer in the off-season. The Minnesota Wild is a poor team with very good goaltending. The Ottawa Senators are a bad team whose poor performance can only moderately be put on the goaltenders. Even an average goalie can't help the plummeting Sens.
If we look at individual goalie save % and compensation for the 2007-08 season, be prepared for a shocker. If you look at all goalies that played last season and their compensation, there is no relationship between pay and save % (correlation coefficient of +0.09). Crazy? I think so, maybe my MS Excel is broken or something. Let's look at all goalies that've played in at least 30 games:
Full Name | Team | Salary | Sv% |
Dan Ellis | NSH | $500,000 | 92.4% |
Ty Conklin | PIT | $500,000 | 92.3% |
Jean-Sebastien Giguere | ANA | $5,500,000 | 92.2% |
Tim Thomas | BOS | $1,000,000 | 92.1% |
Marc-Andre Fleury | PIT | $1,600,000 | 92.1% |
Martin Brodeur | NJD | $5,200,000 | 92.0% |
Ilja Bryzgalov | PHX | $1,362,500 | 92.0% |
Niklas Backstrom | MIN | $3,100,000 | 92.0% |
Cristobal Huet | WSH | $2,750,000 | 92.0% |
Carey Price | MTL | $850,000 | 92.0% |
Tomas Vokoun | FLA | $5,300,000 | 91.9% |
Pascal Leclaire | CBJ | $1,400,000 | 91.9% |
Martin Biron | PHI | $3,500,000 | 91.8% |
Roberto Luongo | VAN | $6,500,000 | 91.7% |
Kari Lehtonen | ATL | $2,200,000 | 91.6% |
Chris Osgood | DET | $800,000 | 91.4% |
Mathieu Garon | EDM | $1,200,000 | 91.3% |
Henrik Lundqvist | NYR | $4,250,000 | 91.2% |
Manny Legace | STL | $1,800,000 | 91.1% |
Evgeni Nabokov | SJS | $5,000,000 | 91.0% |
Martin Gerber | OTT | $3,700,000 | 91.0% |
Jose Theodore | COL | $6,000,000 | 91.0% |
Jason LaBarbera | LAK | $800,000 | 91.0% |
Marty Turco | DAL | $5,700,000 | 90.9% |
Nikolai Khabibulin | CHI | $6,750,000 | 90.9% |
Alex Auld | BOS | $600,000 | 90.7% |
Miikka Kiprusoff | CGY | $3,600,000 | 90.6% |
Ryan Miller | BUF | $2,500,000 | 90.6% |
Cam Ward | CAR | $2,000,000 | 90.4% |
Vesa Toskala | TOR | $1,375,000 | 90.4% |
Peter Budaj | COL | $700,000 | 90.3% |
Rick Dipietro | NYI | $4,500,000 | 90.2% |
Dominik Hasek | DET | $2,050,000 | 90.2% |
Dwayne Roloson | EDM | $3,500,000 | 90.1% |
Mike Smith | TBL | $950,000 | 90.1% |
Chris Mason | NSH | $1,250,000 | 89.8% |
Patrick Lalime | CHI | $950,000 | 89.7% |
Fredrik Norrena | CBJ | $800,000 | 89.6% |
Olaf Kolzig | WSH | $5,450,000 | 89.2% |
Johan Hedberg | ATL | $1,150,000 | 89.2% |
Ray Emery | OTT | $2,750,000 | 89.0% |
Johan Holmqvist | DAL | $1,000,000 | 88.9% |
If we look at the goalies that played at least 30 games from a team salary and save % for 2007-08, we can evaluate the General Managers. I'm stunned to write this, but the relationship between pay and save % is -0.18. It looks like the Washington ownership got rooked on their goalie investment. I think I can guess a line item in resume of Montreal's GM. LA's GM put the lowest amount of coin into his goalies and still got decent results. Chicago paid 10x what LA did and got a worse save % for it.
Team | Sum of Goalie Salary | Sv% |
ANA | $5,500,000 | 92.2% |
PIT | $2,100,000 | 92.2% |
MIN | $3,100,000 | 92.0% |
MTL | $850,000 | 92.0% |
NJD | $5,200,000 | 92.0% |
PHX | $1,362,500 | 92.0% |
FLA | $5,300,000 | 91.9% |
PHI | $3,500,000 | 91.8% |
VAN | $6,500,000 | 91.7% |
BOS | $1,600,000 | 91.4% |
NYR | $4,250,000 | 91.2% |
NSH | $1,750,000 | 91.1% |
STL | $1,800,000 | 91.1% |
LAK | $800,000 | 91.0% |
SJS | $5,000,000 | 91.0% |
DET | $2,850,000 | 90.8% |
CBJ | $2,200,000 | 90.8% |
EDM | $4,700,000 | 90.7% |
COL | $6,700,000 | 90.7% |
BUF | $2,500,000 | 90.6% |
CGY | $3,600,000 | 90.6% |
WSH | $8,200,000 | 90.6% |
ATL | $3,350,000 | 90.4% |
CAR | $2,000,000 | 90.4% |
TOR | $1,375,000 | 90.4% |
CHI | $7,700,000 | 90.3% |
NYI | $4,500,000 | 90.2% |
TBL | $950,000 | 90.1% |
OTT | $6,450,000 | 90.0% |
DAL | $6,700,000 | 89.9% |
I got to admit it, I'm at a total loss for the implications of this post. If goalies are not paid on save %, what are they paid on? Guess what it is sports fans: The winning % of the team when they play (correlation coefficient of +0.54 of goalies that play over 30 games). As we've covered, a goalie is going to win lots of games if he has a strong defence and a strong offence in front of him. Even if he can stand on his head, he'll lose lots of games if he's getting shelled. That compensation system can clearly be improved. Note to Toronto Maple Leaf GM: Go grab some cheap high save % goalie in the offseason and watch the wins rack up. Don't worry, no other GM will see it coming.
Caveats:
- The 2008-09 individual salaries are not yet available from USA Today. The 2007-08 figures were used instead as a "best guess." Its annoying but its the best I could do with the data available.
