There has been some long overdue evaluation about fighting in the NHL recently. I suspect part of this self-reflection has been spurred on by internal legal counsel. But there is some conversation about the role of fighting in hockey. Is there a relationship between fighting and regular season performance? Is fighting tolerated to boost fan interest which translates into more money for teams? Let's take a statistical valuation approach and stick with the team overall +/- as the best indicator of team performance:
The figures are taken from the 2008-09 season a little past the half-way point (the games played are between 46 and 49):
Team | Major Penalties | +/- |
Boston Bruins | 27 | 64 |
San Jose Sharks | 24 | 50 |
Chicago Blackhawks | 39 | 41 |
Detroit Red Wings | 7 | 36 |
Nashville Predators | 38 | 25 |
Philadelphia Flyers | 52 | 16 |
Washington Capitals | 16 | 15 |
Montreal Canadiens | 25 | 15 |
Minnesota Wild | 28 | 8 |
Calgary Flames | 40 | 8 |
Vancouver Canucks | 51 | 5 |
Florida Panthers | 22 | 1 |
Pittsburgh Penguins | 27 | -2 |
Buffalo Sabres | 22 | -2 |
Anaheim Ducks | 47 | -2 |
Columbus Blue Jackets | 34 | -3 |
New York Rangers | 34 | -4 |
Edmonton Oilers | 39 | -6 |
Los Angeles Kings | 27 | -11 |
Phoenix Coyotes | 32 | -12 |
Colorado Avalanche | 30 | -15 |
Ottawa Senators | 21 | -18 |
Carolina Hurricanes | 17 | -19 |
Tampa Bay Lightning | 24 | -19 |
St Louis Blues | 46 | -19 |
Dallas Stars | 31 | -22 |
New Jersey Devils | 28 | -22 |
Toronto Maple Leafs | 28 | -29 |
Atlanta Thrashers | 33 | -30 |
New York Islanders | 27 | -49 |
There is no relationship between the performance of a team of a team and major penalties (the correlation coefficient between majors and +/- is -0.03). That might of surprise to some but maybe not. Consider which players seem to sit in the press box when the playoffs come.
So if fighting has nothing to do with the on-ice performance of a team, is it used deliberately to manufacture fan interest with financially struggling US teams? Is there a relationship between the financial performance of a team and the use of fighting? Let's take a look at both:
Country | Average count of fights per team |
Canada | 34 |
USA | 30 |
So it isn't US teams driving up the fights.
If we use the Forbes financial evaluation of teams and compare that to fighting majors, we can explore the relationship between fighting and the financial condition of the team:
Team | Value (Mill) | Revenue (Mill) | 2008-09 Major Penalties |
Toronto Maple Leafs | $ 448 | $ 160 | 28 |
New York Rangers | $ 411 | $ 137 | 34 |
Montreal Canadiens | $ 334 | $ 139 | 25 |
Detroit Red Wings | $ 303 | $ 110 | 7 |
Philadelphia Flyers | $ 275 | $ 102 | 52 |
Dallas Stars | $ 273 | $ 105 | 31 |
Boston Bruins | $ 263 | $ 97 | 27 |
Vancouver Canucks | $ 236 | $ 107 | 51 |
Colorado Avalanche | $ 231 | $ 91 | 30 |
New Jersey Devils | $ 222 | $ 97 | 28 |
Minnesota Wild | $ 217 | $ 94 | 28 |
Los Angeles Kings | $ 210 | $ 91 | 27 |
Ottawa Senators | $ 207 | $ 96 | 21 |
Chicago Blackhawks | $ 205 | $ 79 | 39 |
Calgary Flames | $ 203 | $ 97 | 40 |
Anaheim Ducks | $ 202 | $ 90 | 47 |
Tampa Bay Lightning | $ 200 | $ 84 | 24 |
Pittsburgh Penguins | $ 195 | $ 87 | 27 |
San Jose Sharks | $ 179 | $ 85 | 24 |
Edmonton Oilers | $ 175 | $ 85 | 39 |
Buffalo Sabres | $ 169 | $ 76 | 22 |
Carolina Hurricanes | $ 168 | $ 75 | 17 |
Nashville Predators | $ 164 | $ 70 | 38 |
Florida Panthers | $ 163 | $ 74 | 22 |
St Louis Blues | $ 162 | $ 73 | 46 |
Washington Capitals | $ 160 | $ 73 | 16 |
Atlanta Thrashers | $ 158 | $ 70 | 33 |
Columbus Blue Jackets | $ 157 | $ 71 | 34 |
New York Islanders | $ 154 | $ 64 | 27 |
Phoenix Coyotes | $ 142 | $ 68 | 32 |
There is no relationship between the financial value of a team and fighting nor is there a relationship between revenue and fighting. So teams that are in financial distress are not resorting to fighting to boost local interest.
The table below compares the year-to-year correlation coefficient relationship for major penalties by team:
2005-06 | 2006-07 | 2007-08 | 2008-09 | |
2005-06 |
| 0.43 | 0.39 | 0.48 |
2006-07 |
|
| 0.44 | 0.54 |
2007-08 |
|
|
| 0.72 |
2008-09 |
|
|
|
|
What this means is that there tends to be a strong relationship between 2007-08 major penalties and 2008-09 penalties. While not a given, teams that fight one year tend to fight the next.
OK, so if fighting doesn't help a team win on the ice or in the box office, what is going on here?
From the NHL perspective, it is really unclear as to why fighting is essentially encouraged. It could be eliminated over night with a few rule changes without any obvious impact at the team performance or local level. Is there a concern that in eliminating fighting that the NHL television ratings would be negatively impacted? But if it is true that the TV viewers are deciding whether to tune in or not based on the expectation of a fight, then this would be a legitimate financial consideration. But i don't have access to TV viewership and the % of highlight content devoted to fights. Does the ESPNs/TSN/SportsNet devote a disproportionate amount of their air-time highlights to fighting? I don't know, but that's the only scenario that makes sense to this Hockey Outsider.
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