Evaluating Goalies: no clear link between performance and pay

 

Goalies are paid to do one thing. Stop the puck from going in the net. To evaluate goalies, it should be easy. To what degree do they stop the puck from going in the net (save %). This post looks to evaluate both save %, shot count and pay. The save % of a goalie may seem a little difficult for a casual fan to care about. What's the difference in a single game between goalies with a 92% save rate versus one with 91%? Well seemingly nothing in just one game. But that single % difference could mean a swing of 25 goals over the course of a season. That's big and can easily mean the difference between making and missing the playoffs.

The table below breaks down the teams that by shots and save %. This table simply looks at the player performance and salary. The Florida Panthers goalies look like good value here while the GM in Detroit and Dallas better give his scouts something to work on for next year.

	Save %
Shot Count	Under 90%	90-91%	Over 90%
Significantly more shots than average	Sives getting shelled -Atlanta Thrashers ($6.3m) -NY Islanders ($1.3m)	Sweating -Tampa Bay Lightning ($1.3m) -Anaheim Ducks ($6.3) -Phoenix Coyotes ($1.3)	Overworked and playing great -Florida Panthers ($2.2m)
About average amount of shots	Team Killers -Colorado Avalanche ($6.1) -St Louis Blues ($1.3) -Toronto Maple Leafs ($1.3)	Mr. Average -Pittsburgh Penguins ($1.3) -Edmonton Oilers ($4.7m) -Philadelphia Flyers ($1.3m) -New York Rangers ($1.3m) -Carolina Hurricanes ($6.1m) -Montreal Canadiens ($2.2m) -Washington Capitals ($1.3m) -Calgary Flames ($6.1m) -Vancouver Canucks ($1.3m) -New Jersey Devils ($1.3m) -Columbus Blue Jackets ($6.1m)	Over-achievers -Buffalo Sabres ($6.1m) -Boston Bruins ($6.1m) -Minnesota Wild ($2.2m) -Nashville Predators ($1.7m) -Chicago Blackhawks ($6.1m)
Significantly less shots than average	Hiding their incompetence -Detroit Red Wings ($6.1m) -Dallas Stars ($6.1m)	Hiding behind their stats -Ottawa Senators ($1.3m) -Los Angeles Kings ($2.2m)	Awesome and bored -San Jose Sharks ($1.3m)

 

If you buy that a team's +/- is the best indicator of team performance, then we can quickly see how a goalie individually contributes to his team's success. The average save % for NHL goalies in 2008-09 is 90.5%. If we replace all the team's current save % with the average, we can quickly get a view for how the records would be different. Watch the team with around an even +/- as they are the ones most on the bubble for the playoffs. To read it, the goal adjustment column is the amount of goals the team us up/down by based on their goalies play compared to the average goalie.

 

Team	Current +/-	Goal adjustment
Boston Bruins	68	+41
San Jose Sharks	52	+10
Chicago Blackhawks	42	+16
Detroit Red Wings	40	-14
Nashville Predators	29	+13
Washington Capitals	23	-3
Philadelphia Flyers	15	+7
Minnesota Wild	13	+32
Buffalo Sabres	10	+13
Vancouver Canucks	7	0
Calgary Flames	6	-6
Montreal Canadiens	6	+1
Florida Panthers	4	+26
Pittsburgh Penguins	-1	-5
Anaheim Ducks	-1	+9
Los Angeles Kings	-5	-5
Dallas Stars	-5	-26
Columbus Blue Jackets	-9	-8
St Louis Blues	-12	-12
Carolina Hurricanes	-13	-2
New York Rangers	-16	+8
New Jersey Devils	-16	+1
Edmonton Oilers	-20	-5
Colorado Avalanche	-23	-16
Ottawa Senators	-24	-5
Tampa Bay Lightning	-25	+6
Phoenix Coyotes	-27	+0
Toronto Maple Leafs	-33	-46
Atlanta Thrashers	-39	-23
New York Islanders	-46	-10

 

The Boston Bruins enjoy incredible success due to good goaltending. That said, they would still be a good team with an average goaltending as well. The team most affected by poor goaltending is the Toronto Maple Leafs who appears to be putting AHL players in nets. And judging by the salaries they pay their goalies, it seems as though that is indeed the strategy. If the Leafs had even an average save %, they would be a better than average team. This could be good news for Leafs fans as there is an easy answer in the off-season. The Minnesota Wild is a poor team with very good goaltending. The Ottawa Senators are a bad team whose poor performance can only moderately be put on the goaltenders. Even an average goalie can't help the plummeting Sens.

If we look at individual goalie save % and compensation for the 2007-08 season, be prepared for a shocker. If you look at all goalies that played last season and their compensation, there is no relationship between pay and save % (correlation coefficient of +0.09). Crazy? I think so, maybe my MS Excel is broken or something. Let's look at all goalies that've played in at least 30 games:

Full Name	Team	Salary	Sv%
Dan Ellis	NSH	$500,000	92.4%
Ty Conklin	PIT	$500,000	92.3%
Jean-Sebastien Giguere	ANA	$5,500,000	92.2%
Tim Thomas	BOS	$1,000,000	92.1%
Marc-Andre Fleury	PIT	$1,600,000	92.1%
Martin Brodeur	NJD	$5,200,000	92.0%
Ilja Bryzgalov	PHX	$1,362,500	92.0%
Niklas Backstrom	MIN	$3,100,000	92.0%
Cristobal Huet	WSH	$2,750,000	92.0%
Carey Price	MTL	$850,000	92.0%
Tomas Vokoun	FLA	$5,300,000	91.9%
Pascal Leclaire	CBJ	$1,400,000	91.9%
Martin Biron	PHI	$3,500,000	91.8%
Roberto Luongo	VAN	$6,500,000	91.7%
Kari Lehtonen	ATL	$2,200,000	91.6%
Chris Osgood	DET	$800,000	91.4%
Mathieu Garon	EDM	$1,200,000	91.3%
Henrik Lundqvist	NYR	$4,250,000	91.2%
Manny Legace	STL	$1,800,000	91.1%
Evgeni Nabokov	SJS	$5,000,000	91.0%
Martin Gerber	OTT	$3,700,000	91.0%
Jose Theodore	COL	$6,000,000	91.0%
Jason LaBarbera	LAK	$800,000	91.0%
Marty Turco	DAL	$5,700,000	90.9%
Nikolai Khabibulin	CHI	$6,750,000	90.9%
Alex Auld	BOS	$600,000	90.7%
Miikka Kiprusoff	CGY	$3,600,000	90.6%
Ryan Miller	BUF	$2,500,000	90.6%
Cam Ward	CAR	$2,000,000	90.4%
Vesa Toskala	TOR	$1,375,000	90.4%
Peter Budaj	COL	$700,000	90.3%
Rick Dipietro	NYI	$4,500,000	90.2%
Dominik Hasek	DET	$2,050,000	90.2%
Dwayne Roloson	EDM	$3,500,000	90.1%
Mike Smith	TBL	$950,000	90.1%
Chris Mason	NSH	$1,250,000	89.8%
Patrick Lalime	CHI	$950,000	89.7%
Fredrik Norrena	CBJ	$800,000	89.6%
Olaf Kolzig	WSH	$5,450,000	89.2%
Johan Hedberg	ATL	$1,150,000	89.2%
Ray Emery	OTT	$2,750,000	89.0%
Johan Holmqvist	DAL	$1,000,000	88.9%

 

If we look at the goalies that played at least 30 games from a team salary and save % for 2007-08, we can evaluate the General Managers. I'm stunned to write this, but the relationship between pay and save % is -0.18. It looks like the Washington ownership got rooked on their goalie investment. I think I can guess a line item in resume of Montreal's GM. LA's GM put the lowest amount of coin into his goalies and still got decent results. Chicago paid 10x what LA did and got a worse save % for it.

Team	Sum of Goalie Salary	Sv%
ANA	$5,500,000	92.2%
PIT	$2,100,000	92.2%
MIN	$3,100,000	92.0%
MTL	$850,000	92.0%
NJD	$5,200,000	92.0%
PHX	$1,362,500	92.0%
FLA	$5,300,000	91.9%
PHI	$3,500,000	91.8%
VAN	$6,500,000	91.7%
BOS	$1,600,000	91.4%
NYR	$4,250,000	91.2%
NSH	$1,750,000	91.1%
STL	$1,800,000	91.1%
LAK	$800,000	91.0%
SJS	$5,000,000	91.0%
DET	$2,850,000	90.8%
CBJ	$2,200,000	90.8%
EDM	$4,700,000	90.7%
COL	$6,700,000	90.7%
BUF	$2,500,000	90.6%
CGY	$3,600,000	90.6%
WSH	$8,200,000	90.6%
ATL	$3,350,000	90.4%
CAR	$2,000,000	90.4%
TOR	$1,375,000	90.4%
CHI	$7,700,000	90.3%
NYI	$4,500,000	90.2%
TBL	$950,000	90.1%
OTT	$6,450,000	90.0%
DAL	$6,700,000	89.9%

 

I got to admit it, I'm at a total loss for the implications of this post. If goalies are not paid on save %, what are they paid on? Guess what it is sports fans: The winning % of the team when they play (correlation coefficient of +0.54 of goalies that play over 30 games). As we've covered, a goalie is going to win lots of games if he has a strong defence and a strong offence in front of him. Even if he can stand on his head, he'll lose lots of games if he's getting shelled. That compensation system can clearly be improved. Note to Toronto Maple Leaf GM: Go grab some cheap high save % goalie in the offseason and watch the wins rack up. Don't worry, no other GM will see it coming.

 

Caveats:

• The 2008-09 individual salaries are not yet available from USA Today. The 2007-08 figures were used instead as a "best guess." Its annoying but its the best I could do with the data available.